2006 NFL Fantasy news and impacts

#21

QUARTERBACKS

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Marc Bulger at San Francisco - Kurt Warner played just as expected in Week 1 against the 49ers. The Rams have a very similar offense to Arizona: two big-time receivers, a second-tier back (behind the small top tier of L.J., L.T., and Shaun Alexander), and a quarterback that Mike Martz found out of nowhere. Their receiving corps is built a little more on speed and less on physicality than Arizona's, but that's hardly a reason to think the 49ers will be able to handle them any better.

Philip Rivers vs. Tennessee †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ There's a huge caveat to this pick. If the Chargers let Rivers play a little more than he did last week †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ throwing just 11 passes †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ he should do very well against the Titans pass defense. If they continue to keep him bottled up, he looks like he'll just do enough to get the Chargers the win, but not enough to get a win for your fantasy team.

SIT

Eli Manning at Philadelphia †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Eli is still writing ''par avion'' on most of his passes. That's bad news against a secondary that's still strong, particularly at safety. Manning's ''decline'' last year was because his overthrown passes started getting intercepted, instead of clanging harmlessly to the ground. Remember how your fantasy team loses points for interceptions?

Chris Simms at Atlanta †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ If there's one thing the Atlanta defense can do (note: there is), it's rush the passer. If there's one weakness in Chris Simms' game (note: there is), it's dealing with pressure.

RUNNING BACKS

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Corey Dillon vs. New York †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ If Chris Brown and Travis Henry were one running back, the Titans would actually be able to entertain their fans by activating LenDale White. Also, the Brown-Henry conglomerate would have had the second best rushing PAR (Points above replacement) in the league last week. There's no telling how long the 31-year-old Dillon will remain healthy and atop the depth chart. But while he is, and faces soft defenses, get all the value you can from him.

Ahman Green vs. New Orleans - The Saints beat the Browns last week. The defense looked OK. Bully. Green and the Packers were able to run reasonably effectively against the Bears, posting the fourth-highest rush PAR last week. Raise your hand if you think the Saints defense is in the same class as the Bears defense. Somebody call that man a cab; he's in no shape to drive.

Wali Lundy at Indianapolis †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ The player with the highest rushing PAR (defense adjustments don't begin until later in the season) in Week 1? Tiki Barber. The second-highest rushing PAR? Brandon Jacobs. The worst defense VOA (Value Over Average) in the league last week? Indianapolis. 'Nuff said.

SIT

Edgerrin James at Seattle †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Only six players had worse rushing PARs last week than Kevin Jones had against the Seahawks †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ and two of them were quarterbacks and one a fullback. Jones is hardly a leading man, but he's nowhere near the worst back in the league. The Seahawks have assembled themselves a nice run defense. Combine that with James' lackluster performance against the lowly 49ers and the fact that Seattle should be comfortably in the lead with a lot of time to spare, and you have a recipe for 14 carries for 47 yards.

Fred Taylor vs. Pittsburgh †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Who's a better running back at this point, Ronnie Brown or Fred Taylor? Brown had the second-worst rushing PAR in the league last week against the Steelers †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ and that despite scoring two touchdowns. His good fantasy score obscured the fact that the Steelers totally shut down the Miami running game. Do you really think you can count on the Jacksonville offense to set Taylor up for two touchdowns against the Steelers? Without them you can't expect much of a fantasy score.

Willis McGahee at Miami †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Willie Parker, a pretty good back, recorded negative PAR last week against the Dolphins, meaning he was worse than a garden variety backup running back. He's not, and neither is McGahee, but the Dolphins defense can make them look it.

WIDE RECEIVERS

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Darrell Jackson vs. Arizona †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Don't worry about Deion Branch. At least not yet. Word is that he won't be active in Week 2, so Jackson will run free through Arizona's verdant meadows, joyously catching rainbows †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ just like Antonio Bryant (he of the sixth-best receiving PAR last week) just did.

Laveranues Coles vs. New England †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Chad Pennington is back, and before he went into athlete purgatory, he threw a lot of passes to Coles. Back then, of course, the Patriots had an excellent secondary, worthy of much respect. Now, while we still respect Rodney Harrison very much, we're hardly in awe of the rest of his unit.

Derrick Mason vs. Oakland †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Yes, it was Week 1. Yes, the Chargers are a formidable opponent. But it really looks like the wheels have already come off the entire Raiders team. (It's unclear if they were ever put on, but that's neither here nor there.) Mason is best equipped to take advantage.

SIT

Randy Moss at Baltimore †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Best defensive performance in Week 1? Baltimore Ravens. Second-worst offensive performance (thanks only to the epic terribleness of the Bucs against Baltimore)? Oakland Raiders. The Raiders gave up nine sacks, and the Ravens recorded three, plus three interceptions. Pressure makes Aaron Brooks do things that make Jerry Porter pump his fist.

Joe Horn at Green Bay †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Yeah, I know, I said to sit Muhsin Muhammad last week, and he went off for 102 yards, and recorded the third-highest receiving PAR last week. Well, I'm going to give the Al Harris bandwagon another spin. Joe Horn is well past his prime, so he shouldn't be too much of a challenge for Harris, if and when they're matched up together. Of course, it's those times that new defensive coordinator doesn't match Harris against Horn that you have to be worried about.

T.J. Houshamandzadeh vs. Cleveland †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Not only is there a slight injury question surrounding Houshmandzadeh, but the Browns were the third best team in the league against #2 receivers last year. A lot of that is to the credit of Leigh Bodden, an underheralded cornerback who was one of the superstars of the Football Outsiders game charting project.

TIGHT ENDS

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Dallas Clark vs. Houston †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ Clark has been a Texan killer to rival Leatherface. The Colts have a penchant for luring the Houston linebackers and secondary to sleep when it comes to Clark, mostly by killing them with their wideouts, then throwing deep over the middle to Clark and letting him run after the catch for a touchdown.

SIT

Heath Miller at Jacksonville †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ The Jaguars held Jason Witten to just 33 yards receiving. They also ranked fourth in defending against opposing tight ends last year.

KICKERS

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Nate Kaeding vs. Tennessee †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ The Titans gave up 23 to the Jets, who, while they're glad to have Pennington back, are still not the most formidable offense in the league. The Chargers aren't either, but they're much closer. They're also a better bet to get some turnovers to convert into points.

Jeff Wilkins at San Francisco †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ The Rams have been bad in the red zone for a few years. Scott Linehan's teams have been bad in the red zone for a few years. Now that they've come together, there's reason to believe last weeks six-figgie effort from Wilkins wasn't a fluke †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ just an extreme example of what will be a recurring pattern of futility for the Rams, and fortune for Wilkins owners.

SIT

Lawrence Tynes at Denver †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ The demise of the Chiefs has begun. Do you really want to play a kicker on an offense led by a Huard?

DEFENSES

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Lions vs. Chicago †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ The worst rushing PAR in the league last week belonged to Detroit's opponent, Shaun Alexander. That sounds like the sort of fluky thing that happens in Week 1 and gets blown out of proportion, but Shaun Rogers looked dominant. If the Lions can do something similar against a Bears team that relies more on its running game than probably any other team in the league, they will give up a very small number of points, and probably get some sacks and turnovers on obvious passing downs.

SIT

Buccaneers at Atlanta †™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢‚¬Å¡‚¬¦¢

‚¬Å“ The Falcons can put pressure on Chris Simms much the same way the Ravens did last week. That means turnovers, short fields, and easy Atlanta scores. A big lead gives the Falcons the opportunity run the ball 30 or more times, just like the Ravens did a week ago, except that the Falcons are so much better at it. Defensive points come from passing situations, but don't count on the Falcons being in many this week.

Football Terms

VOA: Value over average, a per-play measure of success compared against the league average in similar situations

PAR: Points above replacement, a player's total contribution to winning, relative to a hypothetical ''replacement-level'' player

#22

Lee Suggs is now the Dolphins' No. 2 running back

Coach Nick Saban says Suggs will be Miami's featured back every third series, similar to how Ricky Williams was used last season. He doesn't figure to steal any of Ronnie Brown's goal-line carries.

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#23

Brian Westbrook's status for Week 2 is reportedly still unclear

Westbrook, who missed most of practice Friday, is listed as probable with a knee injury. Eagles coach Andy Reid says he expects his tailback to be 100 percent by Sunday, but it's beginning to look like Correll Buckhalter and Ryan Moats could both see their roles increase in Week 2 in an effort to ease Westbrook's Week 2 workload.

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#24

Terrell Owens has a broken ring finger on his right hand and will miss 2-4 weeks

He'll have surgery Monday. T.O. revealed the injury after a game in which he caught three passes for 19 yards, with at least three drops. "It came at a good time," Owens said. "With a bye week next week, I have at least two weeks to heal." T.O. makes a good point for once. He may have a chance to not miss any playing time. If he does, Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton see a bump in value.

#25

Frank Gore rushed for 127 yards and a TD on 29 carries in the 49ers' 20-13 win over the Rams Sunday. Gore also had two catches for ten yards

The only knock on Gore has to be his fumbling problems. He coughed one up on the goal line after fumbling in the opener. But he's off to a great start in a much-improved offense under coordinator Norv Turner. Gore can be a top-ten fantasy back if he stays healthy.

#26

Amid the boo birds Sunday, Jake Plummer completed 16-of-30 passes for 173 yards and threw an interception in Week 2

Plummer led Denver to a game-winning drive in overtime capped by a Jason Elam field goal, but Jay Cutler is waiting patiently on the bench. If Plummer doesn't step up his performance in Week 3, expect Cutler to come in. It makes Plummer a high-risk fantasy play next week in New England.

#27

Chad Johnson suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter of Cincinnati's win

One of the team trainer's had to drive Johnson home. Said Carson Palmer of his teammate, "He's a little loopy." Players often return from concussions without missing any playing time, but it varies depending on the situation.

#28

Jevon Kearse will miss the 2006 season with sprains to his MCL, LCL, and PCL

Kearse had 2.5 sacks before suffering the injury Monday. It's a massive loss for an emerging Eagles defense, although they are a rare team that has depth on the defensive line. Look for Trent Cole, who already has four sacks, to start opposite Darren Howard.

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#29

The Chargers reportedly offered a sixth-round pick for QB Billy Volek

Kansas City and Oakland are also reportedly interested.

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#30

Kellen Winslow is upset about his lack of use on third downs

"I think we†™‚¢‚¢¢¢¬…¡‚¬‚¢¢¢¬…¾

‚¢re being a little too conservative right now and we just need to unleash it," Winslow said. Browns offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon has taken a lot of criticism in his two seasons and this does strike us as an odd move for a team lacking firepower.

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